As Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin convene in Alaska for discussions on Ukraine, a prevailing sense of skepticism looms over the possibility of achieving peace in the region. However, amidst this uncertain backdrop, there exists a realm where the two leaders could potentially make history by forging a groundbreaking agreement that serves the interests of both nations: nuclear arms control.
The specter of a looming nuclear arms race casts a dark shadow over the international landscape. With the New START Treaty, the last remaining agreement constraining the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, set to expire next February, the stakes are higher than ever. Should this treaty lapse, the United States and Russia could find themselves without any restrictions on their strategic weapons for the first time in over fifty years, paving the way for an unbridled escalation in military posturing based on worst-case scenarios.
In this pivotal juncture, the Trump-Putin meeting presents a rare opportunity to act decisively — not merely for the betterment of humanity but also to safeguard the strategic security interests of both nations. While crafting a new treaty overnight may be unrealistic, a single meeting holds the potential to initiate the process of reinstating predictability and restraint in the realm of nuclear arms, sending a resounding message to their respective bureaucracies and the world that the era of managed competition need not descend into an uncontrolled arms race.
Both leaders have hinted at their willingness to engage in this critical dialogue. Trump underscored the global implications of New START’s potential expiration, emphasizing the urgent need for a follow-on framework. Similarly, Putin has identified the treaty’s impending termination as a pressing issue requiring attention from Washington. Time, however, is of the essence, and delaying action will only compound the challenges ahead.
Crucially, the onus of addressing this monumental task falls squarely on Trump and Putin, the custodians of over 90 percent of the world’s nuclear warheads. This bilateral issue necessitates a top-down decision-making approach, obviating the need for external approvals or complex negotiations with other stakeholders.
There exist six key areas where the two leaders could potentially reach a preliminary agreement, laying the groundwork for renewed strategic stability talks between the two nuclear superpowers.
Firstly, reaffirming the principle that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” — a sentiment echoed in a January 2022 statement by the UN Security Council’s permanent members — would serve as a foundational act of leadership in the current milieu.
Secondly, publicly committing to adhere to New START limits post-expiration could avert an immediate arms race, instill confidence in allies and rivals alike, and provide a window for deliberations on future frameworks.
Thirdly, a joint declaration against resuming nuclear testing could help sustain the longstanding norm against such activities, preserving global non-proliferation efforts.
Fourthly, agreeing to freeze non-strategic nuclear weapons and refraining from escalating their numbers could assuage concerns and promote mutual restraint.
Addressing the absence of binding limits on intermediate-range missiles, following the demise of the INF Treaty, emerges as the fifth area where Trump and Putin could pledge to avert destabilizing deployments and commit to transparency.
Lastly, acknowledging the imperative to prevent the unchecked proliferation of missile defense systems could reinforce the concept of mutual vulnerability as a cornerstone of strategic stability.
By instructing substantive work on these critical fronts, Trump and Putin could pave the way for deeper engagement on managing emerging challenges posed by evolving technologies and geopolitical dynamics. Collaborative efforts to enhance crisis communication networks and establish robust control mechanisms could foster a shared understanding among nuclear-armed states, laying the groundwork for broader arms control initiatives.
While the focus of the Trump-Putin meeting may center on Ukraine, the potential breakthrough in the realm of nuclear arms control could bear historical significance. The responsibility to mitigate the existential threat posed by nuclear weapons rests squarely on the shoulders of state leaders. Past diplomatic successes between adversarial nations underscore the feasibility of reaching consensus on limiting arms proliferation.
As the clock ticks on the five-month window before New START’s potential expiration, the Trump-Putin dialogue in Alaska could mark the beginning of a transformative journey towards reinstating strategic stability and averting the perils of unchecked militarization. The path to nuclear stability beckons, with the potential for Alaska to serve as the launchpad for a new era of cooperation.
