As the world enters 2025, global leaders and security experts are expressing unprecedented concern about armed conflicts and security risks that could define the year ahead. According to multiple international assessments, this year may represent one of the most dangerous periods since the Cold War, with state-based armed conflict emerging as the primary global threat.
The Rising Tide of Armed Conflicts
State-Based Armed Conflict as the Top Risk
State-based armed conflict emerges as the top immediate risk for 2025, identified by nearly a quarter of respondents in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Perception Survey. This represents a dramatic shift from just two years ago, when conflict wasn’t even considered among the leading risks by international experts.
State-based armed conflict, now ranked as the #1 current risk by 23% of respondents, was overlooked as a leading two-year risk two years ago. This stark change reflects how rapidly the global security landscape has deteriorated, with multiple conflicts now raging simultaneously across different continents.
Unprecedented Scale of Global Conflicts
The current security environment is characterized by an alarming increase in armed conflicts worldwide. There were close to 60 armed conflicts raging in 2023, marking the highest level ever recorded by conflict monitoring organizations. The human cost has been devastating, with civilian fatalities surged by more than 30% percent between 2023 and 2024, mostly due to escalating armed conflicts in the Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Europe.
The displacement crisis has reached unprecedented levels, with at least 200,000 people were killed and over 120 million are currently forcibly displaced – more than half of them within their own borders. This means that roughly 2 billion people – one quarter of humanity – live in conflict-affected countries.
Key Conflict Zones and Security Hotspots
Middle East Escalation
The Middle East remains a primary concern for global leaders as conflicts continue to expand and intensify. A further deterioration of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East in 2025 represents the leading concern of survey respondents. The situation encompasses multiple interconnected conflicts, including the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and increasing regional tensions involving Iran and its proxies.
Wars in the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon ignited by Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, are expected to persist through at least the first quarter of 2025. The conflict’s regional dimensions continue to expand, with Iran and its proxies’ expanding role has heightened the risk of spillover into other countries including Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
Ukraine Conflict Dynamics
The Russia-Ukraine war continues to be a major security concern, though its trajectory may change significantly in 2025. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war by negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin, though experts remain skeptical about sustainable outcomes.
Russian forces have the upper hand, though their slow advance in Ukraine’s east is coming at immense cost. The Kremlin’s army has suffered an estimated half-million deaths and injuries since 2022. The conflict’s resolution remains uncertain, with potential implications for European security architecture.
Asia-Pacific Tensions
The Asia-Pacific region presents multiple security challenges that could escalate in 2025. Tensions between North and South Korea are expected to intensify in 2025, increasing the likelihood of skirmishes along their borders and regional flight disruptions. North Korea’s increasing military cooperation with Russia and continued weapons development programs add to regional instability.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea is forecast to experience heightened nonmilitary confrontations, while the Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula seem less likely arenas for military escalation, though the situation remains volatile and could change rapidly.
Emerging Security Threats
Cyber Warfare and AI-Driven Attacks
Global leaders are increasingly concerned about the intersection of artificial intelligence and cyber warfare. AI-driven cyberattacks are projected to target both military and civilian assets, putting communication systems, transportation networks and critical infrastructure like banks and hospitals at elevated risk.
The sophistication of cyber threats continues to evolve, with AI-powered disinformation campaigns are influencing elections worldwide, threatening democratic integrity. This represents a new dimension of warfare that transcends traditional boundaries between military and civilian targets.
Nuclear Risks and Weapons Proliferation
The nuclear dimension of current conflicts has become a particular concern for global security experts. Biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons or hazards has risen significantly in risk rankings, reflecting growing fears about weapons of mass destruction in an increasingly unstable world.
The potential for nuclear escalation exists in multiple conflict zones, from the Russia-Ukraine war to tensions on the Korean Peninsula, creating what experts describe as the most dangerous nuclear environment since the Cold War.
Economic and Social Dimensions
Military Spending and Resource Allocation
The global response to rising security threats is reflected in unprecedented military expenditure. Global military spending has skyrocketed, reaching an all-time high of more than $2.4 trillion in 2023. This massive resource allocation to defense spending has implications for other priority areas, including climate action and social development.
Energy Security Challenges
Several of the aforementioned themes in this article — namely climate change, cybersecurity threats and the war in Ukraine — have caused increased concern for energy security worldwide, and this remains a top 2025 geopolitical risk. European leaders, in particular, continue to grapple with energy vulnerability following the disruption of Russian gas supplies.
Leaders’ Strategic Responses
Multilateral Cooperation Challenges
Despite the escalating risks, global leaders face significant challenges in coordinating effective responses. The GRPS finds that the approach that respondents believe has the most long-term potential for driving action on risk reduction and preparedness regarding State-based armed conflict is Global treaties and agreements, followed by Multistakeholder engagement.
However, As nations grow more adversarial and insular, support to the world’s trouble spots will diminish. This trend toward nationalism and unilateralism complicates efforts to address conflicts through international cooperation.
Regional Organizations’ Role
Amid the current challenges facing global multilateralism, there is space for regional organizations to expand their roles in managing geopolitical tensions in their regions. Organizations like the African Union have demonstrated capacity for conflict mediation and peacekeeping, though resource constraints limit their effectiveness.
Trump Administration Impact
The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency adds significant uncertainty to global security calculations. Trump’s return adds unpredictability to an already volatile world, with potential implications for existing alliances and conflict resolution efforts.
If Israel annexes the West Bank with U.S. blessing, or Washington unilaterally bombs Mexican cartels, norms that are already enfeebled risk further disintegrating. Such actions could encourage other leaders to test international boundaries and norms.
Long-term Security Outlook
Geopolitical Recession
Security experts describe the current environment as a “geopolitical recession,” characterized by the breakdown of international cooperation mechanisms. The geopolitical recession is amplified by deepening tensions between the US and China over trade, technology and Taiwan; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; sharpening conflict in the Middle East.
Environmental Security Nexus
While immediate armed conflicts dominate 2025 concerns, longer-term security risks increasingly involve environmental factors. Climate change continues to be a threat multiplier, potentially exacerbating existing conflicts and creating new sources of instability.
Risk Assessment Framework
High-Impact, High-Likelihood Events
There have never been so many contingencies rated as high likelihood/high impact events (five) since the PPS began in 2008. This assessment from foreign policy experts indicates that 2025 presents an exceptionally dangerous security environment.
Of the thirty contingencies surveyed, twenty-eight are judged to be either highly or moderately likely to occur in the next twelve months. Eighteen of those, moreover, would have a high or moderate impact on U.S. interests.
Implications for Global Stability
Interconnected Risks
Modern conflicts are increasingly interconnected, with developments in one region affecting stability elsewhere. Not only are conflicts growing more frequent and intense, they are increasingly internationalized, intractable and difficult to end.
The simultaneity of multiple conflicts creates cascading risks that strain international response capacity and complicate diplomatic efforts to address individual crises.
Humanitarian Consequences
The human cost of current conflicts extends beyond immediate casualties to broader societal impacts. Displacement, economic disruption, and breakdown of social services create long-term challenges that persist beyond active hostilities.
Conclusion
As global leaders navigate 2025, they face an unprecedented convergence of security risks that challenge traditional approaches to conflict prevention and resolution. We seem to be living in one of the most divided times since the Cold War, with state-based armed conflict emerging as the dominant immediate threat.
The year ahead will test the resilience of international institutions, alliance structures, and diplomatic mechanisms that have maintained relative global stability for decades. Success in managing these risks will require renewed commitment to multilateral cooperation, even as nationalist pressures work against such collaboration.
The stakes could not be higher, with expert assessments indicating that 2025 may be among the most dangerous years in recent history. How global leaders respond to these challenges will shape not only immediate security outcomes but also the foundations of international order for years to come.
The convergence of traditional military conflicts with emerging threats from cyber warfare, climate change, and weapons proliferation creates a complex risk environment that demands sophisticated, coordinated responses. Whether the international community can rise to meet these challenges will define the trajectory of global security in the decade ahead.
