Vladimir Putin has visited Tajikistan for a Russia-Central Asia summit. Regional security, labor migration and Moscow’s influence after the war in Ukraine will be discussed.
Putin in Tajikistan: Russia seeks to strengthen influence in Central Asia
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Tajikistan on Wednesday for a series of meetings with leaders of former Soviet republics.
The main event is the Russia-Central Asia summit, which will be attended by the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
The leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus will also join the talks on Friday as part of a broader meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Visit aims to maintain Moscow’s influence
Putin rarely travels abroad due to an International Criminal Court warrant for his arrest in the case of the deportation of Ukrainian children, but he came to Central Asia in person.
The Kremlin is trying to strengthen ties with its neighbors as Russia’s influence in the region has weakened since the start of the war against Ukraine.
“Today, much depends on the cooperation of our military institutions – first of all, stability in Central Asia,” Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said after meeting with his Tajik counterpart Emomali Sobirzoda.
Russia hopes to maintain its role as the main guarantor of security in a region that has repeatedly experienced border conflicts and internal armed clashes.
Regional background and political risks
After the collapse of the USSR, Tajikistan went through a five-year civil war that claimed tens of thousands of lives.
Today, the country is once again the focus of Russian attention, not only because of its geopolitical importance, but also because of its migration ties: millions of Central Asians work in Russia, sending home significant remittances.
Analysts say Moscow fears increased instability if migration incomes decline or new border clashes occur.
Putin meets Rahmon, plans talks with Aliyev
The Kremlin is paying special attention to bilateral relations with Tajikistan. Putin held talks with President Emomali Rahmon, who has led the country since 1992 and is known as the longest-serving leader in the post-Soviet space.
At the previous summit in 2022, Rahmon publicly rebuked Putin for his dismissive attitude towards the countries of the region, so the current meeting is perceived as an attempt to mend old wounds.
Putin is also expected to meet with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, whose relations have recently become strained over the Caucasus issue and Moscow’s stance on Armenia.
Context
Putin’s visit to Tajikistan is part of his pivot to the East, which includes partnerships with China and North Korea, whose troops could reportedly be involved in the war against Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have been increasingly cautious, seeking to balance Moscow, Beijing and the West.
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